| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature range will contain the highest observed air temperature in Boston on March 23, 2026. The outcome matters to traders and to anyone with weather-sensitive exposure (energy, travel, events) because late‑March temperatures can swing rapidly and affect demand and operations.
Late March in Boston lies in the transitional season between winter and spring, so synoptic-scale storms, cold Canadian air masses, or early-season warm advection can each produce very different daily highs. The market will be settled using an official observing station and published meteorological records; outcomes are typically structured as mutually exclusive temperature bins. Historical records and seasonal climate drivers (for example, the North Atlantic pattern) provide context but do not determine the daily result.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature bin will contain the daily maximum; prices update as new model runs, observations, and news arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal that incorporates both short‑term weather forecasts and market sentiment.
Settlement will be based on the official maximum air temperature observation from the contract's designated meteorological station for Boston (typically the NWS/NOAA station used by the exchange). The specific station and authoritative data source are listed in the contract terms; traders should check the market page for that exact settlement source.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time at the designated station) to define the daily maximum; however, the market's rules specify the exact observation window and time zone, so confirm the contract language for any deviations.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible highest temperatures into six mutually exclusive bins (e.g., sequential temperature ranges). The precise lower and upper bounds for each bin are specified on the market page or contract specification; review those boundaries before trading so you know which bin corresponds to which observed value.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and highlights the variability typical for late March, but each day's result is driven by the synoptic situation. Use historical data to understand frequency of different temperature ranges, then combine that with current model forecasts and short‑term observational trends when evaluating the market.
Monitor medium‑range numerical models (ensemble and deterministic runs such as ECMWF and GFS), regional high‑resolution guidance, NWS forecasts and discussions out of Boston, and short‑term observational trends (surface temperature obs, satellite, and radar). Pay special attention to ensemble spread and model consistency as the date approaches, since these indicate forecast confidence.