| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to identify which outcome will correspond to the highest temperature recorded in Boston on March 22, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, risk management, and as a short-term test of forecast skill for that specific date.
Late March in Boston is a transitional season with high day-to-day variability: the city can still experience cold, snow-bearing systems or rapid warm-ups depending on synoptic patterns. Single-day maxima are driven mainly by the position of the jet stream, surface fronts, and local land/sea effects, while longer-term climate trends alter baseline conditions but do not determine a single calendar-day result.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which temperature range (outcome) will contain the official daily maximum; they are a real-time summary of beliefs, not guaranteed forecasts. Always check the market's settlement rules to understand how outcomes map to the official observation used for resolution.
The contract's settlement terms specify the authoritative station or dataset; typically this is an official NOAA/NWS observation for the Boston area. Consult the market description/settlment rules on the platform to see the exact station or dataset that will be used.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day as defined in the settlement rules (00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time). Because local time conventions (standard vs daylight) matter in March, verify the market's precise definition in the contract.
This specific market lists its close as TBD; the platform will publish the trading close time. Settlement normally occurs after the designated authority releases the official daily maximum, and the market's rules will state the expected settlement timeline and any dispute procedures.
Stations such as airport, coastal, hilltop, and suburban sites can record different maxima because of elevation, proximity to water, and urban effects. The chosen settlement station in the contract determines which measurement governs resolution, so knowing that station is essential.
Track the timing and strength of any approaching warm or cold fronts, cloud cover and precipitation forecasts, wind direction shifts (onshore vs offshore), and recent snow/ground conditions—these factors most directly affect the daily maximum for that date.