| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 21, 2026 will be. It matters because temperature on that date reflects short‑term weather patterns and contributes to seasonal climate tracking used by energy, transportation, and public health planning.
Late March in Boston is a climatologically active transition period between winter and spring, so day‑to‑day temperatures can swing widely depending on synoptic weather systems. Recent decades have shown a warming trend that shifts baseline expectations, while individual outcomes still depend on transient storms, cold fronts, or warm air advections. Local coastal effects and urban heat island influence observed values compared with regional averages.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations based on available forecasts, observations, and climatology; they are not guaranteed predictions but real‑time signals of collective assessment. Interpret odds as reflecting current consensus and uncertainty rather than a deterministic outcome.
The contract's settlement rules specify the official observing station and data source; markets like this typically use an official NWS/ASOS or climate station (e.g., a designated Boston station). Check the market's rule page to confirm which station and dataset will be used for settlement.
The market shows 'Closes: TBD'; settlement normally occurs after the 24‑hour period for March 21 ends and the official agency publishes the final daily observation. The exact trade‑close time and settlement timing will be listed on the market page once set.
Outcome definitions, including temperature units and rounding rules (whole degrees, tenths, or range buckets), are specified in the contract terms. Consult the market documentation to see the precise binning and rounding conventions used for settlement.
Relevant history includes climatological March variability for Boston, recent year‑to‑year departures for mid‑March, and any nearby analog dates with similar synoptic setups; long‑term warming trends adjust the baseline but do not eliminate short‑term variability driven by storms and cold snaps.
Monitor short‑range NWP models and ensembles (e.g., high‑resolution and global models), surface station observations, upper‑air soundings, satellite imagery, and coastal marine forecasts; changes in model runs and real‑time surface data in the 1–5 days before the date typically drive the largest shifts in market expectations.