| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest recorded in Boston on March 20, 2026, letting traders express expectations about that single-day weather outcome. It matters for people and businesses with weather-sensitive operations and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the region.
March 20 falls near the meteorological transition from winter to spring in New England, so Boston can experience anything from late-season cold snaps to early warm spells. Synoptic-scale systems (coastal storms, fronts, or high-pressure ridging) and local maritime influences drive large day-to-day swings, while long-term climate trends have shifted seasonal baselines modestly upward over decades. Historical variability on this date means forecasts depend heavily on the evolving model guidance in the week before the event.
Market prices are a real-time, aggregated signal of traders' expectations about which temperature range will occur and should be treated as probabilistic information rather than a guarantee. Use prices alongside meteorological forecasts and official observations when forming a view.
Settlement typically uses the official maximum temperature reported for the calendar day by the designated observing station or official authority; the market rules should specify the exact data source and definition (e.g., highest hourly or daily maximum). Check the market’s rules page for the precise settlement definition.
The market’s settlement rules will name the official source—commonly an NWS/NOAA observing site such as the official Boston area station. Refer to the event’s rule text to confirm which station or dataset will be used.
Settlement usually occurs after the official daily observations are published by the chosen data provider, often on the day following the observation once the official daily summary is available; exact timing depends on the market operator’s settlement procedures.
This market’s six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges specified in the event description; consult the event page to see the boundaries of each outcome so you know which observed maximum would fall into which outcome.
Monitor operational model guidance (global models like ECMWF and GFS, and high-resolution regional models), National Weather Service forecasts for Boston, short-term ensemble guidance, and real-time observations from local stations and buoys in Massachusetts Bay for onshore/offshore trends.