| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain Boston's highest observed temperature on March 2, 2026. It matters because weather extremes affect travel, energy demand, and short-term economic activity in the region.
Early March in Boston sits in the winter–spring transition, so temperatures can swing from cold, coastal-influenced conditions to unseasonably mild periods driven by warm-air advection. Synoptic storms (Nor'easters), the position of the jet stream, and sea-surface temperatures in the nearby Atlantic all shape day-to-day outcomes.
Odds in this market represent the collective assessment of participants about which discrete temperature outcome will be the recorded maximum that day. They update as new model runs, observations, and short-range forecasts arrive.
The platform will publish the market close time; the winning outcome is determined after March 2, 2026 using the official temperature record for the designated station and time window specified in the market rules.
Settlement will use the official observing station designated by the market (typically the National Weather Service or another specified local official station); consult the market's settlement rules to confirm the exact station.
The event uses the local calendar day as defined in the market rules (commonly 00:00 to 23:59 local time) and the highest reported instantaneous or hourly observation within that window at the designated station.
Early March is climatologically variable: the region can experience lingering winter cold or early warm spells depending on synoptic drivers. Historical variability, coastal moderation, and increasing winter temperatures over recent decades are relevant context for assessing outcomes.
Potential issues include instrument malfunctions, station relocations, quality-control edits by the official data provider, or post-event corrections; the market will follow its published dispute and settlement procedures if official data are revised.