| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in Boston will be on March 19, 2026. It matters for weather traders, local planners, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability or extreme-temperature outcomes.
The market is hosted on KALSHI and lists six discrete outcomes that correspond to temperature ranges or specific values; the close time is currently TBD and trading can reflect evolving forecasts and observations. Boston's spring temperatures are highly variable—from late-winter cold snaps to early-season warm spells—so day-to-day synoptic changes often dominate the signal. Historical March 19 records and recent seasonal trends provide useful context but do not determine a single result for 2026.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about which temperature bin or value will be realized as the day's maximum. Interpret prices as a crowd-sourced summary of expectations, remembering that official weather observations and the exchange's resolution rules determine the actual outcome.
The winning outcome will be determined by the highest official temperature recorded in Boston on the calendar date March 19, 2026, as reported by the market's designated official source; consult the contract terms for the exact station and dataset used for resolution.
The market will use the reporting source specified in the contract language—typically an official NWS/NOAA station or another identified observing site in Boston—so check the event's resolution clause to confirm the exact station and dataset.
Resolution generally awaits the official daily summary for March 19 from the designated source; publication often occurs the same day or within 24 hours, but the exchange may allow additional time for finalization per its rules, so expect resolution timing to follow those specified procedures.
Exchanges resolve outcomes according to their stated policy on post-publication corrections: if the designated official dataset is subsequently revised within the exchange's correction window, the final resolved outcome may reflect that corrected value—review the market's dispute and correction policy.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges or specific values that partition possible daily maxima; they translate real-world observed maxima into discrete contract outcomes for trading and settlement.