| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 18, 2026 will be, which matters for short-term weather risk management and for people and businesses planning for that day. Traders use information about forecasts and observations to express expectations about that specific daily maximum.
Mid-March in Boston is a transitional period with substantial day-to-day variability driven by the clash of lingering winter air masses and early spring warmth; synoptic-scale storms, cold intrusions, or warm southerly flow can all produce very different outcomes. Climate change has increased the frequency of anomalous temperature swings, while local factors like urban heat and proximity to the ocean can modulate daily maxima. Historical March 18 values vary, so forecasters and traders closely watch short-range model output and observations in the days and hours before the date.
Market odds reflect the collective view of traders about which temperature-range outcome is most likely given available forecasts and information, and they update as new model runs and observations arrive.
The market will settle using the official observation source specified in the event rules on the KALSHI platform, typically a designated National Weather Service or official climate station for the Boston area; consult the event’s settlement details for the exact station.
The platform’s event rules define the local date range used for measurement (generally a midnight-to-midnight local time window); check the market page for the precise definition used for this event.
Only the value from the single official reporting station named in the market’s settlement rules will be used for settlement, even if nearby stations report different temperatures.
Settlement follows the exchange’s published data and revision policy: some platforms wait for final certified observations or allow a specified revision window, while others settle on the first official release—review KALSHI’s settlement and dispute policies for this event.
Short-range model updates, surface observations, and evolving mesoscale features typically drive the largest price movements as traders revise expectations in response to new information in the hours and day leading up to the measurement period.