| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined outcomes will correspond to the highest air temperature observed in Boston on March 17, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive businesses, event planners, and traders testing weather-forecasting signals.
March temperatures in Boston are highly variable year to year and depend on synoptic-scale storms, coastal moderation, and the timing of cold or warm air masses. Long-term warming trends increase the chance of unseasonable warmth, but the realized temperature on a single day is driven mainly by short- to medium-range weather patterns and local effects.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which outcome will occur, and they update as forecasts and observations change. To understand settlement specifics, always read the contract text that names the observing source, units, rounding, and tie-breaking rules.
The settled value is the maximum official air temperature recorded on March 17, 2026 as reported by the observing source named in the contract; settlement follows the exchange's defined time window, unit (°F/°C), and rounding rules.
The specific observing station or agency (for example, a named NWS station) is specified in the market contract — consult the market page; if the contract lists multiple sources or fallbacks, the exchange's settlement rules describe the order of precedence.
The winning outcome is determined after the designated source publishes the official daily maximum for March 17, 2026 and per the exchange's settlement timetable; the contract or platform notices will state the settlement date and any delay for data verification.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or threshold as listed on the market page; rounding conventions, inclusive/exclusive endpoints, and tie-breaking or revision policies are spelled out in the contract and the exchange's settlement policy.
Use medium-range deterministic and ensemble models (ECMWF, GFS), local high-resolution models (HRRR/NAM) closer to the date, NWS forecasts and MOS guidance, surface observations, and short-range radar/satellite for cloud/precip timing; updates within 72–0 hours often have the largest impact on the anticipated maximum.