| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Boston on March 16, 2026 will be and converts competing expectations into tradable outcomes. Knowing the day’s peak temperature matters for energy use, public-safety planning, and short-term climate signals in the region.
Mid-March in Boston is a transitional period with high variability: late-winter storms, cold intrusions, and early spring warm-ups all occur in different years. Forecasts depend heavily on the synoptic pattern in the days leading up to the date, so outcomes can shift rapidly as model guidance and observations evolve. Markets like this aggregate many pieces of information into a single, continuously updating signal.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature-range outcome will occur; they update as new observations and model runs arrive. Treat prices as real‑time indicators of consensus, not guarantees; always check the contract’s settlement rules before trading.
Settlement will follow the exchange’s contract terms and use the specified official observation source—typically the National Weather Service or the designated Boston reporting station (check the market page). The official daily maximum for the local calendar day is used according to the contract’s stated observation period and reporting convention.
Closing time is listed on the market page as TBD; the exchange sets the formal trading close and settlement schedule. Final settlement normally occurs after the official daily summary from the designated observation source is published—market details will state the exact timing for posting the outcome.
The market is divided into six mutually exclusive outcome buckets that cover disjoint temperature ranges for Boston’s daily high on Mar 16, 2026. The precise numeric boundaries for each outcome are shown on the market page and should be consulted before trading.
Useful context includes NOAA climate normals for Boston, historical high-temperature records for mid-March and for March 16 specifically, and recent trends in early‑spring highs/lows. Also review recent observations at the Boston reporting station to assess persistence and recent anomalies.
Monitor short-range deterministic models (high-res runs), ensemble guidance (ECMWF and global ensembles), NWS Boston forecast discussions, satellite and radar for cloud and precipitation timing, and surface observations for frontal timing—these sources together give the best short-term signal for the day’s maximum temperature.