| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain the highest temperature recorded in Boston on March 15, 2026; it matters because day-of temperature extremes affect energy use, travel, and public-health planning. Markets like this aggregate diverse information into a single signal about a measurable weather outcome.
March in Boston is a highly variable, transitional month: historical March 15 readings have ranged from well below freezing to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic patterns. Short-term drivers (frontal passages, coastal storms, or warm air advection) and the choice of observing station both strongly influence the reported maximum.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders on which outcome bin will occur; interpret prices as market-implied likelihoods but always consult the event’s official resolution rules to map outcomes to the observed temperature.
The official resolution is defined on the Kalshi event page; markets of this type typically use the maximum reported temperature from the official meteorological station designated for Boston (check the event page for the exact station identifier and dataset).
The market’s resolution clause will specify the time window—commonly the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the designated observation site—so verify the event details for any use of UTC or a different 24-hour window.
Tie-handling is governed by the event’s resolution rules; in many cases identical highest readings simply result in the corresponding temperature bin being declared the maximum, but consult the Kalshi event page for the official tie-breaking procedure.
The event page currently lists the market close as TBD—check the Kalshi listing for the announced close time; resolution typically occurs after the observing day ends and the designated source publishes its daily maximum.
Useful references include the station’s historical daily maxima for March 15 and climate normals (NOAA), recent trends in mid-March variability, current deterministic model runs (GFS/ECMWF) and ensembles, and local NWS forecast discussions that explain expected mesoscale features.