| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest observed air temperature in Boston on March 14, 2026. It matters for people and businesses sensitive to one‑day temperature extremes and for comparing near‑term weather expectations.
Boston in mid‑March sits in a transition zone between winter and spring, so single‑day highs can vary widely depending on large‑scale patterns such as warm air intrusions from the south or cold Canadian air masses and coastal storms. Proximity to the Atlantic, urban heat effects, and residual snow cover can all modulate the observed maximum on any given date. Historical daily variability in the region means this date can produce anything from near‑winter readings to unseasonably warm values.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about the final settled value as defined in the contract; use them as a relative indicator of market sentiment rather than an absolute forecast. Always consult the event’s settlement rules to understand exactly which observation and measurement conventions determine the outcome.
The contract will settle to the official observation source and station named in the market’s settlement rules—check the event page for that source. Many weather contracts use National Weather Service/NOAA observations from the official Boston observing site (commonly the Logan Airport station), but you must confirm the exact station and dataset on the KALSHI event page.
Most contracts use the local calendar day at the designated observing station (00:00:00 through 23:59:59 local time) for March 14, 2026; verify the event’s settlement rules for the precise start and end times and the time zone used.
Highest temperature generally means the maximum air temperature recorded by the official meteorological instrument at standard exposure (typically 2 meters above ground in a Stevenson screen). The event page will state the unit (°F or °C) and any rounding or reporting conventions used for settlement—consult those details before trading.
If multiple observations record the same numeric maximum, the settled value is the recorded maximum itself; tie‑times do not change the numeric highest temperature. If the contract uses categorical or range outcomes, any tie‑handling or rounding rules will be specified in the market’s settlement rules.
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official data for the date are published by the named source and may take hours to a few days depending on the dataset. Monitor the KALSHI event page for official close and settlement announcements and check the posted settlement timeline and dispute procedures.