| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves to the highest air temperature recorded in the Boston reporting location on March 13, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature on a given date reflects short-term weather dynamics and can inform trading based on expected conditions for that specific day.
Boston in mid-March sits in a transitional season with frequent swings between cold and mild air masses; outcomes can be driven by the timing of frontal passages, offshore versus onshore flow, and any synoptic systems such as coastal storms. Local factors like proximity to the Atlantic, urban heat effects, and recent snow cover also modulate the observed maximum temperature. Market participants should check the contract’s settlement source to understand which observing station and conventions will be used.
Market odds reflect crowd expectations about which temperature range will be the daily maximum in the designated Boston observing location on March 13, 2026. Treat odds as a real-time summary of available information and adjust for new forecasts, surface observations, and official updates as the date approaches.
The contract’s settlement rules specify the official observing station and data feed used for settlement (for example an NWS/NOAA daily value or a specific METAR station); check the market page or rule text to confirm the designated source before trading.
Settlement typically uses the official local calendar day for the designated observing station, but the precise measurement window (local 00:00–23:59 versus a UTC-defined day) is defined in the contract—verify the settlement conventions on the event page.
Microclimates (coastal versus inland, elevation, urban centers) can produce substantially different highs across the metro area; only the temperature recorded at the contract’s specified official station determines the outcome, so location-specific conditions at that station are what matter for settlement.
Monitor short-range model solutions for frontal timing, strength of southerly or northerly flow, coastal low development, cloud and precipitation forecasts, and surface observations such as temperature advection and station trends in the 48–72 hours prior to the date.
Mid-March shows large interannual and synoptic variability, so both relatively cool and relatively warm outcomes are plausible depending on transient weather systems; use recent forecast trends, climatology for the specific station, and knowledge of seasonal variability rather than relying solely on long-term averages.