| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six temperature categories will be the highest recorded temperature in Boston on March 12, 2026. The result matters for planners, utilities, event organizers, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk in the Boston area.
Early March in Boston sits in a transitional season when cold air masses, late-winter storms, and occasional warm intrusions can all occur. Day-to-day outcomes reflect synoptic-scale patterns (position of highs, lows, and the jet stream), coastal moderation from the Atlantic, and the region's recent temperature trends.
Market prices represent the collective, real-time expectation of participants and incorporate weather model outputs, observations, and news. Use them as a consensus signal alongside official forecasts, not as a guarantee of the outcome.
Each outcome corresponds to a predetermined temperature range defining the highest observed temperature for Boston on March 12, 2026; see the specific contract page for the exact bins and boundaries used for settlement.
The contract page lists the official close time; settlement will occur after the official observation for March 12 is available from the designated station and may take a short period for verification — check the market rules for exact timing.
The market will settle to the official observing station or dataset specified in the contract (commonly the National Weather Service station for Boston Logan Airport or another designated station); consult the contract text for the exact source and observation window.
A Nor'easter or similar coastal storm can lower daytime maximums through clouds, precipitation, and onshore flow, or temporarily raise temperatures ahead of the storm in the warm sector; the impact depends on storm timing and track relative to Boston.
Traders commonly use global and regional models (ECMWF, GFS, CMC), high-resolution short-range models (HRRR, NAM), ensemble forecasts, satellite and radar nowcasts, surface observations, and local climatology to form expectations for a one-day temperature maximum.