| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 44% | 44¢ | 45¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 34% | 33¢ | 36¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 19% | 19¢ | 20¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market trades on the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 11, 2026. It matters to traders and stakeholders who want to hedge or speculate on near-term weather outcomes and to anyone monitoring short-term climate variability in a major city.
Boston in early March sits in a seasonal transition where forecasts can swing between late-winter cold and early-spring warmth depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Single-day maxima are driven by large-scale weather systems, cloud cover and sea-breeze/coastal influences; the market aggregates expectations from models, forecasters and traders into tradable outcomes.
Market prices and odds synthesize available information (model guidance, observations, and trader judgment) about which outcome will occur; they are a real-time indicator of collective belief, not a guaranteed prediction. Always read the contract's settlement rules to confirm the official data source, measurement unit, and cutoff times.
Settlement is governed by the market's contract rules; those rules specify the observing station and data source (commonly an official National Weather Service station such as the designated Boston site). Check the contract text for the authoritative source, any tie-breaking procedures, and how missing or flagged data are handled.
The market shows 'Closes: TBD'—the precise trading cutoff and the exact observation window (for example the calendar day in local time or a defined 24-hour period) are specified in the contract. Verify the stated cutoff and settlement period before trading.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible highest temperatures on that date into mutually exclusive bins or specific value outcomes. The contract description lists the exact temperature ranges or labels for each outcome—refer to that text to know which temperatures fall in each outcome.
Deterministic and ensemble model guidance becomes increasingly informative 1–5 days ahead as large-scale pattern and frontal timing solidify, while last-minute cloud, precipitation, or wind changes can still alter the day’s maximum. Use a blend of longer-range pattern signals and short-range high-resolution forecasts for the best read.
Use long-term March temperature distributions for Boston as a baseline for plausibility and to contextualize extremes, but combine that with current model output, recent anomalies, and synoptic forecasts—climatology gives prior expectation but not short-term forcing from specific weather systems.