| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest measured in Boston on March 10, 2026; it matters for people and organizations that plan around short-term weather outcomes (utilities, travel, outdoor events, and retailers).
March in Boston is a transitional month with a wide range of possible conditions—from late-winter cold to early-spring warmth—so single-day highs can swing substantially depending on synoptic patterns. Climate trends and local factors like coastal influence, snow cover, and urban heat island effects all shape how warm or cold a given March day can be.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature bracket will be the recorded daily maximum; treat prices as a live, consensus signal that evolves as official forecasts, observations, and model runs update.
The market uses the local calendar date: the highest official hourly or sub-hourly observation recorded between 00:00 and 23:59 local Boston time on March 10, 2026, at the designated observing station.
Settlement typically relies on the official National Weather Service or ASOS observing station designated in the market rules for Boston (commonly the primary station serving Boston); check the event's settlement details on the market page for the exact station named for this contract.
Operational models (e.g., global and regional deterministic runs and ensemble guidance) update several times per day; new runs can change expected timing of fronts and temperature advection, which traders incorporate into market prices as the date approaches.
Extensive snow or saturated ground increases albedo and cooling, reducing daytime heating potential, whereas bare ground or melting snow allows more solar warming—so antecedent surface conditions are an important local modifier.
Late-arriving model updates, observed shifts in frontal timing, unexpected cloud cover or precipitation onset, station reporting anomalies, or official forecast changes from the NWS can all trigger quick reassessments by traders and move market pricing.