| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 9, 2026. It matters because realized temperatures affect energy demand, outdoor activities, and short-term local planning and are of interest to weather-sensitive stakeholders.
Austin in early March sits in a transition season where synoptic-scale patterns (cold fronts from the north, warm advection from the Gulf) can produce large day-to-day swings in high temperature. Forecast uncertainty at the multi-day horizon comes from model differences in timing and strength of fronts, cloud cover, and mesoscale effects such as sea-breeze or frontal timing that alter daytime heating.
Market prices aggregate trader beliefs about which temperature bin will contain the observed daily maximum; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real-time summary of information, not as deterministic forecasts.
Settlement typically relies on the official daily maximum temperature reported by the designated observation station used by the exchange—most often the National Weather Service/NOAA station that serves Austin—unless this market page specifies a different source. Check the market rules for the exact verification station.
Markets define a single official measurement site for settlement; for Austin markets that is commonly the Austin-Bergstrom (airport) observation site or the NWS-designated station. Confirm the market listing to see which station is used for this event.
The usual convention is the local calendar day (00:00 through 23:59 local time) at the designated observation station, with the daily maximum taken from that station’s official records; verify the market’s settlement rules for any deviations.
The six outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature intervals (bins) listed on the market page; each outcome wins if the officially observed daily maximum on March 9, 2026 falls within that interval.
This market’s close time is listed as TBD, so check the exchange for the precise trading deadline. Settlement will use the official published observation for March 9, 2026; if revisions or delays occur, the exchange’s dispute and settlement rules determine final outcomes.