| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest observed temperature in Austin on March 8, 2026, allowing traders to express views or hedge weather exposure for that specific day. It matters to energy operators, event planners, and anyone with temperature-sensitive risk in the Austin area.
Early March in Austin is a transitional period when large swings are possible because cold frontal passages can still bring cool conditions while clear, sunny days can produce rapid warming. Local climate trends and large-scale patterns (e.g., the state of the jet stream or ENSO) influence the likelihood of unusually warm or cool outcomes. The market distills real-time forecasting and local observations into tradable outcomes.
Market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders based on forecasts, observations, and risk preferences and should be read as a real-time signal rather than a guaranteed forecast. Use prices alongside official meteorological forecasts and the market’s resolution rules to inform decisions.
The market’s official resolution rules list the specific observing station or dataset used to determine the reported temperature; check the Kalshi event page for the named source (for example, a specified ASOS/airport station or a particular National Weather Service report).
The event page specifies the start and end times and the time zone used for the calendar day; confirm those details on the Kalshi market page because markets commonly use local time for the named location.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a defined temperature bucket or discrete value range listed on the market page; trades settle into the single outcome that contains the official highest reported temperature for that date as specified by the market’s resolution rules.
Resolution follows the data source and time-of-publication rules stated on the event page; many markets use the value as reported by the named source at a specific time and do not reopen after later revisions, so consult the market’s resolution policy for how post-publication adjustments are handled.
Use market prices as an additional, real-time signal that aggregates forecast information, but rely on operational weather forecasts and official warnings for decisions; traders can combine model guidance, local observations, and the market signal to form short-term views or hedges.