| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 7, 2026; it matters because the daily high drives short-term energy demand, outdoor planning, and weather-related risk assessments. Market prices aggregate diverse forecasts and information into a single, continuously updated signal.
Austin in early March sits in a spring transition period when conditions can swing between cool, moderate, or anomalously warm depending on synoptic patterns; local factors like cloud cover and soil moisture also modulate daily highs. Kalshi has split the plausible outcome space into six mutually exclusive temperature bins; consult the event page for the exact bin definitions and the official settlement source and rules.
Prediction market prices represent the collective judgment of participants about which outcome will occur and will change as new model guidance and observations arrive; treat prices as dynamic indicators that respond to evolving weather information rather than fixed forecasts.
The event is settled according to the official reporting station and dataset specified in the market rules on the Kalshi event page; check that settlement source and its time zone on the event page before trading.
The market close time is listed on the Kalshi event page (it is currently TBD); the measured high is the maximum valid temperature recorded during the local calendar date of March 7, 2026 as defined in the market's settlement rules.
The six outcomes correspond to specific temperature bins or thresholds described on the event page; for boundary or tie cases the market's settlement rules specify whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive—read the settlement procedure for the definitive rule.
Early March is climatologically a variable period with potential for both cool frontal intrusions and spring-like warmth; traders commonly consider recent model trends, local climate normals, and the frequency of late-winter frontal passages when forming expectations for Mar 7, 2026.
Procedures for data gaps, quality-control flags, and use of alternative verified sources are defined in the market's settlement policy on Kalshi; if the primary source is unavailable, the policy explains whether a backup station or official correction will be used.