| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° or above | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 29% | 29¢ | 31¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 47% | 47¢ | 49¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Austin, Texas, will be on March 6, 2026. It matters for residents, event planners, utilities, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk in the region.
Early March in Central Texas is a transitional period with a history of rapid swings between cool and warm conditions driven by passing fronts and Gulf flow. Year-to-year variability is large, and long-term warming trends can shift the baseline over decades; however, daily outcomes are dominated by synoptic weather systems and local effects.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders based on current forecasts, observational data, and risk perceptions; they update as new weather model runs and observations arrive and should be read as evolving signals rather than guarantees.
The closing time is set by the market operator and currently listed as TBD; the outcome is usually determined after official observations for March 6 are finalized, so check the contract page for the exact settlement timeline and any post-event verification window.
The contract specification defines the official source (for example, a designated NWS/ASOS station or an official municipal observing site); consult the market's rules on the platform to see which station and data product will be used for settlement.
Settlement typically uses a defined 24-hour local period (e.g., local calendar day) or specific hourly observation window as stated in the contract—review the market's settlement rules to confirm the precise start and end times and any rounding or averaging conventions.
Verification usually relies on official meteorological observations reported by agencies such as the National Weather Service (ASOS/METAR records) or another designated data source named in the contract; the market operator will cite that source in the settlement documentation.
Key near-term drivers include the forecast track and timing of any frontal passage, last-minute changes in cloud cover or precipitation potential, mesoscale convective activity, and rapid shifts in low-level wind direction that alter warm advection from the Gulf.