| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 57% | 57¢ | 58¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 12% | 13¢ | 14¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 22% | 21¢ | 22¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Austin will be on March 5, 2026. It matters because temperature outcomes are driven by short‑term weather patterns and provide a way for traders to express expectations about local weather risk and variability.
Early March in central Texas is a transitional period when either cool continental air or warm Gulf air can dominate, so day‑to‑day temperatures can swing widely. Synoptic storms, fronts, and mesoscale features (like drylines or sea‑breeze surges) have historically produced both unseasonable warmth and late cold snaps. Seasonal climate drivers such as the state of ENSO and broader atmospheric patterns can bias the background odds but weather timing often determines the actual result.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations and update as new forecast data and observations arrive; interpret them as the market’s current consensus view that will change with evolving weather information.
The market listing shows the close time as TBD; check the contract page for updates. Resolution typically occurs after the official observations for March 5, 2026 are published and any contractual adjudication is complete.
The contract’s resolution clause specifies the official data source — review that clause for the exact station or dataset. Many weather markets use the National Weather Service observation for Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) or another specified official station, but confirm in the market rules.
Most contracts define highest temperature as the maximum observed air temperature during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the specified observing site; check the market rules to confirm the exact time window and local time zone.
The contract’s resolution procedures describe steps for missing or questionable data, which often include using the next available official observation or following the issuing agency’s quality-control determinations; consult the resolution rules for the precise method.
Watch forecast model runs for frontal timing and strength, shifts in low‑level wind direction (Gulf flow vs. continental flow), cloud/precipitation trends, and any rapidly developing warm advection or convective events within 48–72 hours of the date, since these factors tend to drive the largest revisions.