| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain the highest observed air temperature in Austin on March 4, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes are driven by rapidly changing weather factors that markets can aggregate and price. Traders use this market to express views about synoptic and mesoscale conditions affecting Austin on that specific date.
Early March in Central Texas is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by the timing of cold fronts, Pacific storm systems, and Gulf moisture. Longer-term warming trends shift the baseline climate upward, but the realized daily maximum still usually depends on the immediate synoptic setup and cloud/precipitation conditions. Local measurement details (which station and exact observation window) are determined by the market's settlement rules.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s evolving expectations given public forecasts and observations; they are best interpreted as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a single deterministic forecast. Prices will move as new model runs, observations, and front timings change the expected daily maximum.
The market's settlement rules specify the observation window (typically the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59 local time); check the event page for the definitive start and end times used for this market.
The event page and settlement rules name the official data source used for settlement (for example, a National Weather Service or specified local observing station); use the market's posted source rather than assuming a particular station.
The market's close time is currently listed as TBD on the event page; final settlement typically occurs after the designated source publishes the official daily maximum and the market operator verifies it—watch the event page for the confirmed closing and settlement schedule.
Tie- and boundary-handling procedures are defined in the market's settlement rules; common approaches include using the exact observed value to determine the correct bin or applying a predefined rounding or tiebreaker method—consult the event's official rules for this market.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble numerical model trends (GFS, ECMWF, NAM and their ensembles), surface observations and frontal analyses, satellite cloud imagery, high-resolution convection-allowing models, and surface station temps from the Austin area to track front timing, cloud cover, and convective potential that most directly affect the daytime maximum.