| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Austin on March 3, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, public planning, and local weather-sensitive decisions. Markets aggregate diverse information and can signal how forecasters and traders expect the weather to evolve leading up to that date.
Austin sits in central Texas where early March is a seasonally transitional period: strong cold fronts can produce unusually cool days and strong ridging can produce unseasonably warm days. Long-term warming and rapid urban development have increased variability and changed local warming patterns, but day-to-day outcomes remain driven by synoptic weather systems. Historical records show both late-winter cold snaps and early-spring warm spells, so volatility around a single calendar date is common.
Market prices on this event represent the collective expectation for which of the discrete temperature outcomes will occur; they are dynamic and typically move as forecast models, observations, and surface conditions change. Treat prices as a real-time summary of available information rather than a definitive forecast.
The market will settle after the official highest temperature for March 3, 2026 is published by the market's designated authority; KALSHI will use the official observing station and dataset it specifies (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station or another clearly stated public source) and will announce the settlement timing once the observation is available.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range for the highest observed temperature in Austin on March 3, 2026 as defined by the market listing; traders buy shares in the range they think will contain the recorded maximum temperature for that date.
Relevant context includes Austin's typical early-March variability (the frequency of frontal passages versus ridge-driven warm spells), recent seasonal trends such as late-winter warmth or cold snaps, and local urbanization impacts that can raise overnight and daytime temperatures relative to rural surroundings.
Monitor major numerical guidance and ensembles (e.g., ECMWF, GFS and their ensembles), high-resolution convective models (HRRR/NAM where applicable), National Weather Service forecasts and model blends, and real-time surface observations and sounding data for indications of cloud cover, frontal timing, and boundary-layer evolution.
Late changes such as an unexpected cloud shield or isolated precipitation, a faster- or slower-moving front, nocturnal low-temperature anomalies affecting daytime recovery, or shifts in wind direction that draw gulf moisture can all materially alter the daytime maximum and therefore which outcome is realized.