| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature band will contain the highest air temperature observed in Austin on March 28, 2026. It matters for traders and stakeholders who want to hedge or speculatively express views on late‑March weather in Austin.
Austin in late March sits in a transition season with potential for both mild and warm days depending on synoptic-scale patterns; single-day maxima can swing with the passage of fronts, cloud cover, or strong spring sunshine. Seasonal signals (e.g., large-scale circulation anomalies) set a background, while short‑range systems and local effects determine the actual highest daily value.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectation about which temperature range will be realized, and they update as new forecast model runs, observations, and weather bulletins arrive. Interpret price movement as shifts in collective belief about which outcome will contain the observed maximum, not as fixed truth.
The event refers to the maximum official air temperature observed within the Austin area on that date as determined by the market's designated settlement source; consult the market's settlement rules for the precise reporting station or authority used to determine the final value.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible highest temperatures into mutually exclusive bins; the outcome whose bin contains the official observed maximum for Mar 28, 2026 will be the winning outcome at settlement.
The market's close time is set on the platform and is currently listed as TBD; settlement will occur after the designated reporting authority publishes the official observation for Mar 28, and timing follows the exchange's published settlement procedures.
Settlement uses the specific data source named in the market rules (typically an official NWS/ASOS station or equivalent); if the primary source is unavailable or disputed, the exchange's contingency and dispute-resolution procedures, as described in its rules, will be applied.
Longer-range pattern signals set a baseline weeks out, but forecast influence ramps up in the 3–7 day window and is strongest in the 0–48 hour window when high-resolution models, satellite/obs data, and short‑wave trough/front timing can materially change expectations for the daily maximum.