| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined outcomes will correspond to the highest observed temperature in Austin on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and local stakeholders because daily maximum temperatures affect energy use, outdoor plans, and short-term weather risk assessments.
Late March is a transitional period in central Texas when cool-season frontal passages and spring warming both influence daily highs; single-day extremes can deviate substantially from climatological averages. Longer-term warming trends and seasonal teleconnections (e.g., large-scale ENSO patterns) can shift the background odds for warmer or cooler days, while short-term synoptic systems determine the immediate outcome.
Market odds reflect collective expectations given current information and update as forecasts and observations change; they are not guarantees but a snapshot of trader beliefs and incoming data.
The market rules specify the official observing station and data product used for settlement (typically a National Weather Service or official meteorological station for the city); consult the market page for the precise source and whether the metric is a daily maximum, highest hourly, or another defined value.
Each outcome corresponds to a predetermined temperature range or threshold set by the market creator; the exact bins or cutoffs are listed on the event page and determine which outcome wins once the official temperature is published.
The market closure time is set by the market operator and is currently listed as TBD on the event page; settlement typically occurs after the designated authority publishes the official daily maximum and any specified post-processing or verification window ends—check the event rules for exact timing.
Historical climatology for late March provides context on typical variability and extremes; combine long-term normals and recent trends with short-range weather model forecasts to assess how unusual a given outcome would be for that date.
Watch national and regional forecast model runs, National Weather Service updates for Austin, satellite and radar trends, surface station observations near the city, timing of any incoming fronts or convective systems, and sky-cover forecasts that will directly affect daytime heating.