| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Austin on March 26, 2026 will be and is relevant for traders and weather observers monitoring short-term temperature risk and seasonal transition.
Late March in Central Texas is a transition period when temperatures can swing quickly in response to passing fronts, upper-level ridges, or low-pressure systems. Forecasts for a specific date often change as new model runs, surface observations, and satellite/radar data arrive; the event will resolve to an official observation as specified on the market page.
Odds in this market reflect the collective expectation of participants and will update as meteorological information changes; they are a real-time signal of anticipated conditions rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Resolution follows the event rules posted on the KALSHI page; that typically means the official observation from the weather station specified in the event description (for example, the designated NWS or airport station) and the official daily observation period listed by the platform.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement normally occurs after the official daily maximum temperature is available and validated per KALSHI's settlement rules, so check the event details for the exact close and settlement window.
The six outcomes are the pre-defined resolution categories (either numeric values or temperature bins) that cover the range of possible highest temperatures for Austin on that date; the exact ranges or values are specified on the event page.
Watch short-range numerical models (e.g., high-resolution runs), National Weather Service forecasts and statements for Austin, surface observations at local stations, radar and satellite for cloud/precip trends, and timing of any predicted frontal passages or mesoscale boundaries.
Use historical climatology and past March 26 records to provide baseline context for typical variability and extremes, but treat them as a starting point: the specific synoptic setup and real-time forecast data for 2026 will drive the actual outcome.