| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Austin, Texas will be on March 25, 2026. The outcome matters to people and organizations sensitive to one-day temperature extremes, such as energy providers, event planners, and researchers following seasonal variability.
Late March is a transitional period in Central Texas when temperatures can swing from cool to warm depending on frontal passages, solar angle, and humidity. The market is presented with six discrete outcomes; participants should note the market close time is listed on the market page and may be updated by the exchange. Historical March 25 readings and recent seasonal patterns provide context but do not determine a single outcome.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which temperature category will be the highest reading for the date; those prices move as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive. Use prices as a snapshot of consensus expectations, not as a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement will be based on the official meteorological observation designated by the exchange, typically the National Weather Service/NOAA official station that serves the Austin area (for example, the airport observing site). Check the market rules for the exact station referenced.
The event uses the local calendar date for Austin (Central Time). The exchange will specify the exact observation window and timezone in the market rules; highest instantaneous or hourly reported value within that local date is used per the settlement procedure.
This market's outcomes are discrete categories defined by temperature ranges or bins; the market page lists the precise boundaries for each of the six outcomes. Review those bins before trading to know which category corresponds to which temperature interval.
After the official observations for Mar 25 are available, the exchange will determine the highest reported temperature per the stated data source and apply the market's settlement rules. Settlement may occur after data verification and is handled on the schedule published by the exchange.
Late March in Austin often shows wide day-to-day variability; climatology provides a baseline expectation and the historical range for that date, but specific synoptic-scale patterns and short-term forecasts around Mar 25 will usually drive the market more strongly than long-term averages.