| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest observed in Austin on Mar 24, 2026; it matters for people and businesses who plan around heat risk, energy demand, outdoor events, and agricultural decisions.
Late March is a transitional period in Central Texas when warm spring air can spike daytime highs but cold intrusions are still possible, so single-day extremes are driven by short-term weather patterns. Long-term warming trends raise baseline temperatures over decades, but day-to-day outcomes remain dominated by synoptic-scale factors and local conditions.
Market prices summarize traders' aggregated expectations about which temperature range will occur; they update as new weather models, observations, and forecasts arrive, and can be interpreted as a real-time signal of consensus but not a definitive forecast.
Settlement will use the observing station and measurement protocol specified in the market rules; check the event's rule text to see the named station (for example the NWS-designated station) and the official measurement period used for the highest daily value.
This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes. Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range listed on the event page; consult the event description to see the exact ranges that determine which outcome wins.
The platform controls closing and settlement times; the event page currently lists closing as TBD, and settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations are published and any specified QA period elapses—refer to the market rules for exact timing.
New model runs, updated observations, and official forecast products can move expectations quickly; traders adjust positions as forecast confidence shifts, so market prices can change substantially in the days and hours before the observation.
Yes—historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and helps contextualize how unusual a given outcome would be, but this market reflects the market's view of the specific synoptic and local conditions expected on Mar 24, 2026 rather than long-term averages alone.