| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome categories will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 23, 2026. It matters for planners, utilities, event organizers, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk because the daily maximum affects energy demand, public health messaging, and local operations.
Late March in Austin is a transition period from cool to warm conditions and can produce wide day-to-day variability driven by passing fronts, spring sun angles, and occasional early heat spikes. Climate trends have increased the frequency of unusually warm days in many regions, but short-term outcomes for a single date remain strongly controlled by synoptic and mesoscale weather patterns.
Market odds aggregate traders’ information, forecasts, and expectations about which temperature range will be the day’s maximum; they are dynamic and update as models, observations, and reported conditions change. Use odds as a real-time summary of market consensus, not as a fixed forecast — check the market page for the most current pricing and the official settlement rules.
The event page currently lists the market close as TBD; the outcome is typically determined after the calendar day ends and the official observing agency publishes the daily maximum for that date. Check the market page for the announced close time and the settlement schedule.
Settlement will use the authoritative data source specified in the market’s official rules on the event page—commonly an NWS/ASOS or cooperative station representing Austin. Consult the market rules for the exact station identifier and instrument used for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature categories (bins) defined in the market listing; each tradeable outcome represents the highest-temperature bin that contains the observed daily maximum. See the event description for the precise numeric boundaries of each bin.
Final settlement timing depends on when the official data provider publishes a validated daily maximum; this can range from hours to a few days after the date. The market rules will state the exact settlement latency and any procedures for corrections or disputes.
Short-term model updates (HRRR/NAM/WRF), real-time surface observations, NWS forecast updates, and any incoming frontal or cloud-cover reports are the most immediate drivers. Traders also react to overnight temperature trends and upstream conditions that suggest warming or cooling during the daytime period.