| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Austin, TX will be on March 22, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive businesses, event planners, and people tracking climate and short-term forecast skill.
Austin sits in a spring transition zone where late-March weather can swing from cool, post-frontal conditions to pronounced warm-ups under dry, sunny air masses. Synoptic-scale patterns (frontal passages, upper-level ridging) and local factors (urban heat island, soil moisture) have historically produced large day-to-day variability this time of year. Market prices provide a real-time, tradable summary of expectations as forecasts evolve.
Odds in this market summarize the collective expectation of participants based on available models, observations, and news; they update as new forecast data arrives. Treat market prices as a consensus forecast that evolves over time, not a guaranteed outcome.
The market's settlement rules name the authoritative data source (for example, a specific NWS station or airport observation). Check the market page for the exact station or dataset that will be used; that named source governs settlement.
Settlement typically uses the calendar date in the time zone of the specified observation station (Austin is in Central Time). The contract's settlement details list the exact start and end times used for the daily maximum.
The contract's rules specify units and rounding conventions. For U.S. city temperature contracts the settled unit is commonly degrees Fahrenheit and rounding may be to whole degrees, but you should confirm the precise convention on the market page.
The market's settlement procedure describes fallback data sources and the handling of provisional or revised observations. If an official source has gaps or amendments, the published settlement policy explains which dataset or revision is authoritative.
Use the market as a complement to model forecasts and official NWS guidance: markets aggregate real-time expectations and react to new model runs, observations, and news, while forecasts provide physical reasoning and detailed scenario information.