| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature in Austin, TX will be on March 21, 2026. It matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking near-term climate and weather variability for that specific date.
Late March in Austin sits in the spring transition, when either warm Gulf air or cool continental air can dominate from one day to the next, producing a wide range of possible highs. Local influences (sea-breeze impulses, frontal passages, cloud cover) and larger-scale patterns (upper-level troughs/ridges) both drive day-to-day swings. The market settles to a single official observation from the designated reporting station, so contract rules and the official data source are critical.
Market prices reflect the collective, time-varying view of participants about which temperature category will be observed; they are not guarantees. Use published contract rules and the official observation source to interpret final settlement.
Settlement follows the data source and station named in the market's official contract rules; commonly this is the National Weather Service/NOAA official reporting station for Austin (e.g., Austin-Bergstrom), but you should confirm the exact station and dataset on the market page because only that named source governs settlement.
The market is divided into six discrete temperature outcome categories specified on the event page; each outcome corresponds to a defined numeric range or value. Consult the event page to see the exact boundaries for each of the six outcomes before trading.
Daily maximum temperature is typically reported by the designated observing network (e.g., NWS) based on the 24-hour daily record for the local date; preliminary values can appear soon after the day ends but final values may be posted or revised later by the data authority—settlement uses the value and revision policy specified in the contract rules.
Markets settle according to the official data provider and the revision/dispute procedures named in the contract. If the designated source issues a corrected or revised official value, the market follows that authoritative record as described in the event rules.
Use short-range numerical weather model guidance and ensemble spreads for the days leading up to March 21 to capture synoptic timing, supplemented by local observations and nowcasts for the immediate pre-day period; historical climatology provides a baseline expectation but real-time synoptic setup (fronts, Gulf flow, clouds) typically dominates the realized high for a single date.