| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Austin will be on March 20, 2026; it matters because daily-maximum temperature outcomes are driven by weather patterns and have implications for energy demand, public health, and outdoor plans.
Austin's mid‑March temperatures sit in a seasonally variable window where both late winter fronts and early spring warmups are possible. Local climatology, the position of large‑scale pressure systems, and short‑term forecast model runs together determine whether that date will be relatively warm or cool compared with typical early‑spring conditions.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations of which predefined temperature range will be the daily maximum; interpret prices as the market's consensus view that updates as new forecast data and observations arrive.
The contract's settlement rules specify the official source; consult the Kalshi event page for the named observing station or dataset used for settlement (organizers commonly reference National Weather Service or NOAA reporting stations for a metro area).
‘On’ typically refers to the local calendar date at the official observing location (midnight to 11:59 PM local time), but the event's settlement rules may define a specific observation window or timezone convention, so check the market's rule text.
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement generally occurs after the observing station posts its official daily maximum and after any dispute window specified in the contract—verify the schedule on Kalshi for exact timelines.
Follow local National Weather Service forecasts, high‑resolution short‑range models (e.g., rapid‑update convection‑allowing models), primary global models for trend changes, satellite and radar for cloud/precip changes, and real‑time surface observations from the official station.
Use historical daily‑maximum distributions for mid‑March in Austin as a baseline for what is typical, while accounting for recent warming trends and year‑to‑year variability; combine climatology with current synoptic forecasts to form an expectation for Mar 20, 2026.