| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86° to 87° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will contain the highest air temperature observed in Austin on March 2, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, agriculture, event planning, and local weather risk management.
Austin in early March sits in a transitional season where anything from unseasonably warm ridges to late-season cold fronts can set the day's maximum. Local climatology, Gulf of Mexico moisture, and the timing of synoptic-scale systems all interact to produce wide day-to-day variability. The market aggregates traders' views on those influences; total traded volume provides a sense of market interest but not the eventual weather outcome.
Market prices summarize the collective expectation of participants based on incoming forecasts and observations; they move as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use them as a real-time signal of market consensus, but consult direct meteorological sources for operational decisions.
The market resolves to the official daily maximum as defined in the event's resolution rules on KALSHI. Those rules specify the exact observing station or dataset (for example, a specific ASOS/AWOS or NWS climate site) and the measurement convention; check the event rules page to confirm the designated station and definition.
The closure time is listed on the event page as TBD; trading typically stops before or at the time the outcome observation period begins or when KALSHI specifies. Consult the event listing for the official close time and any last-trade or settlement cutoff details.
Look at long-term climate normals and past March 2 daily maxima for Austin, recent trends in late-winter/early-spring warmth or cold snaps, and the range of observed values on comparable dates; historical variability and recent seasonal context help gauge how unusual a given outcome would be.
Different observing systems and datasets define 'daily maximum' differently (instantaneous peak, highest minute or two, or highest hourly average). The event’s resolution rules will state which definition applies; that definition determines which recorded value is used to assign the winning outcome.
Track deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., short- and medium-range guidance), local NWS forecasts and forecast discussions, surface observations, radar and satellite trends, morning upper-air soundings, and the timing of any fronts or precipitation expected to pass through Austin.