| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 19, 2026 will be; it matters for traders, event organizers, and anyone with weather-sensitive activities that day. Outcomes aggregate collective expectations about the day's peak temperature in the Austin official observing area.
Austin's spring temperatures are influenced by both seasonal warming and variable synoptic-scale weather systems, so March 19 can fall on either cool or warm side of typical March conditions. Recent multi-year climate trends, local urban heat effects, and the presence or absence of fronts or offshore flow all shape the expected range for that specific date.
Market odds represent the market's aggregated view of which temperature range is most likely to occur and will update as forecasts, observations, and participants' information change. Treat odds as a real-time signal that reacts to new model runs, observations, and evolving weather patterns rather than a fixed forecast.
Resolution follows the contract rules listed on the market page: typically the highest air temperature recorded during the local calendar day of March 19, 2026 as reported by the official observing source specified by the market. Check the market’s rule text for the exact resolving station and time window.
The market’s rule text or settlement details specify the official station to be used (commonly an NWS or airport ASOS/ASOS-equivalent site for the Austin area). If the page does not name a station, follow the market’s stated tie-breaker or official data source instructions.
Outcomes are defined as distinct temperature bins or specific categories that together cover all possible recorded maxima for the day; only the bin containing the official reported maximum will resolve as the winning outcome. Consult the outcome labels on the market page for precise bin boundaries and inclusivity rules.
Updates in numerical weather prediction (deterministic and ensemble), short‑range mesoscale models, updated surface observations and METARs, radar/satellite trends, and revised human forecasts from local offices or private forecasters will all influence market prices as they change the assessed likelihood of different maximum-temperature outcomes.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation for what is typical on March 19 and helps identify anomalous scenarios, but traders should combine climatology with current model guidance and synoptic analysis because day‑to‑day weather variability and recent trends can produce outcomes far from historical averages.