| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in Austin will be on March 18, 2026. It matters for traders and participants who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes that affect energy, agriculture, and outdoor events.
Late winter to early spring in Central Texas is a transition period with large day-to-day variability driven by passing fronts, Gulf moisture, and episodic warm spells. Local factors such as urban heat island effects and the particular observing station used for settlement can also shift the realized maximum from regional forecasts.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders given current forecasts, models, and available observations; they will update as weather model runs, observations, and synoptic developments change in the days and hours before March 18, 2026.
The contract will specify the authoritative observing station or dataset used for settlement; consult the Kalshi contract terms for the exact official source (for example a specified NWS station, airport station, or other named sensor).
The platform lists the market's close time; at present the close is marked TBD, so check the Kalshi market page for updates—markets commonly close before the start of the measurement date or at the time stated in the contract.
The six outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive temperature ranges or exact values defined in the market contract; view the contract page to see the precise bin edges or value definitions that determine which outcome wins.
Relevant information includes historical March 18 maximums at the contract's official station, recent seasonal trends and anomalies, model ensemble forecasts in the 7–10 days before the date, and current surface and upper-air observations in the region.
Resolution follows the contract's finalization rules: if the designated official dataset is post-processed or corrected, the contract's tie-breaking and data-finalization provisions determine whether and how late corrections affect settlement—check the dispute and data rules on Kalshi.