| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in Austin will be on March 17, 2026; it matters for traders interested in short-term weather risk, energy load forecasting, and local impacts to outdoor events and infrastructure.
Austin's mid-March weather sits in a transition season with high variability: strong cool fronts can produce unusually low readings, while early warm spells or onshore flow from the Gulf can push daytime temperatures well above climatological norms. Local factors (urban heat island, station siting) and larger-scale drivers (regional pressure patterns, seasonal climate anomalies) together determine the observed maximum on a given day.
Market prices reflect the collective, evolving expectation about that day's maximum temperature, integrating model forecasts, recent observations, and market participants' information; treat prices as a continually updating signal rather than a fixed prediction.
The page currently shows the close time as TBD; resolution will occur after the official observational record for March 17, 2026 is available per the event's rules — check the event details on the platform for posted close and resolution timestamps once they are announced.
The event's resolution text specifies the official observing station and data source (for example, a particular NWS station or NCEI dataset); consult the event rules to see the exact station and dataset used to determine the reported maximum.
Each outcome represents a predefined temperature range (a bin) covering all possible maxima for the day; the event description lists the exact breakpoints for those six ranges — review the outcome labels on the market page for the precise definitions.
Use historical March 17 observations and recent spring climatology to establish a baseline and understand typical variability, but also factor in current forecast model trends, front timing, and short-term observations because a single day's maximum can deviate substantially from the long-term average.
The event's resolution rules specify procedures for missing or disputed data — common approaches include using the nearest approved replacement station, waiting for the finalized official dataset, or following an arbitrator's determination; check the event's terms for the exact contingency procedure.