| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 16, 2026, and matters because daily peak temperatures drive short-term risks for energy use, public health, and outdoor activities. Traders use this to express views about the weather on that specific date.
Mid-March in central Texas is a transitional period with high variability: the same week can produce a warm spring day or a cool, post-frontal day depending on synoptic patterns. Day‑to‑day outcomes reflect interactions among large‑scale circulation (e.g., ridging or troughing), Gulf moisture and frontal timing; longer‑term warming trends and interannual modes like ENSO modulate the background odds without dictating a single day's maximum.
Market prices aggregate participants' current information and forecasts about which temperature bin will contain the day's maximum; they update as models and observations change. Treat prices as evolving indicators of collective expectation and always confirm the market's stated observation source and settlement rules before trading.
The market resolves according to the specific observing station and measurement standard named in the market description (for example, an official NOAA/NWS or designated cooperative station and the reported air temperature metric). Check the market page for the precise station identifier, units, and any sheltering or instrument specifications used for settlement.
Resolution occurs after the end of the designated local date and after the official observational dataset specified by the market has issued the applicable value; the market page indicates whether settlement waits for preliminary or final quality‑controlled data and any settlement lag.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins or discrete categories defined on the market page; the single outcome whose range contains the official highest recorded temperature during the specified period is the winning outcome.
Late model runs, surface observations, or an overnight frontal passage can materially change the expected peak temperature by altering cloud cover, wind direction, and timing of heating; markets typically adjust quickly as new information arrives, so timing of trades relative to forecast updates matters.
Yes; observed temperatures can be revised during post‑event quality control. The market uses the specific dataset/version and revision policy stated in its rules (for example, initial station report versus final corrected record), so consult the market resolution criteria to know which version will determine settlement.