| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome buckets will contain the highest recorded temperature in Austin on March 15, 2026. It matters for planners, energy managers, and anyone monitoring short-term weather risk because daily high temperature affects demand, outdoor activities, and heat-related hazards.
March in central Texas is a transitional month with substantial day-to-day variability driven by passing cold fronts, spring warm-ups, or persistent ridging. Austin’s humid subtropical climate and recent multi-decade warming trends mean both cool and warm extremes are possible in mid-March; local mesoscale effects and storm timing often determine the realized maximum. This market presents six discrete outcomes that map to temperature ranges or thresholds specified in the event rules.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated beliefs about which outcome will occur and update as new model guidance, observations, and local reports arrive; they are indicators of collective expectation, not guarantees. Resolve and settlement depend on the exact observation station, measurement definition, and time window specified in the event’s official rules.
The event’s settlement rules list the official observing station, instrument, and reporting authority used for resolution; check the market’s settlement conditions to confirm whether it uses the NWS airport station, a cooperative station, or another specified source.
Outcome definitions (temperature ranges or threshold values) are published on the event page; each outcome corresponds to the highest validated air temperature recorded in the official station’s daily report for March 15, 2026, within the stated local-time observation window.
Close and resolution timing are set by the event page and settlement rules; markets typically close before the observation period begins or at a stated cutoff, and final resolution occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the designated reporting authority.
Use deterministic model runs and ensemble spread from 1–7 day forecasts to assess frontal timing and cloud/precipitation risk; model agreement generally increases confidence within a few days, while synoptic shifts or rapid cyclogenesis can change outcomes quickly.
Climate trends shift the baseline distribution of daily temperatures over decades, which can make higher values more likely in the long run, but the realized maximum on a single date remains primarily controlled by fast weather-scale processes and timing.