| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 14, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather extremes and for anyone tracking seasonal variability in Central Texas.
Austin's spring weather can swing rapidly between mild and warm as transitional air masses affect the region. Historical climatology puts mid-March highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s °F, but cold fronts or early warm spells can push values well outside that range. Local mesoscale effects, synoptic patterns, and surface heating all combine to determine the day’s maximum.
Market prices reflect participants’ aggregated beliefs about which outcome will be realized; higher prices indicate more market confidence in that specific outcome relative to others. Use odds as a summary of market consensus, while remembering they can change rapidly as new weather information arrives.
The market will settle to the official temperature reported by the observing station specified in the event description (typically the National Weather Service reporting site for Austin). Check the event page for the exact station name used for settlement.
Dates are normally interpreted as the local calendar day for Austin (Central Time); confirm the event page for the platform’s stated timezone and any specific cut-off times used for settlement.
Settlement typically uses the official maximum air temperature as reported by the designated observing station, which follows the station’s standard instrumentation and reporting procedures; the event page or data source documentation will describe the exact measurement convention.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or exact value specified on the event page; review the listed outcome labels on the market page to see the boundaries and ensure you understand which bin matches your forecast.
Markets settle according to the final official value provided by the designated reporting authority; if that authority issues post-event corrections, the platform’s settlement policy (documented on the event page) explains whether and how revisions are handled.