| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature interval will record the highest air temperature in Austin on March 13, 2026. It matters for traders and weather observers because it summarizes expectations about the day's meteorology and can reflect short-term climate signals or notable weather events.
Austin sits in a transitional climate zone where mid-March can produce a wide range of temperatures depending on storm tracks, cold fronts, or warm, sunny conditions. Seasonal variability, long-term warming trends, and large-scale patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña phase) all influence what constitutes an unusually warm or cool March day. The market closes and settles according to the rules and data sources specified by the exchange.
Market prices and odds represent collective trader expectations about which temperature outcome will occur; they are not official observations. Use the market as a real-time signal of consensus forecasting and risk sentiment, and always refer to the official observing station and the exchange's settlement rules for the final result.
Settlement will use the official station specified in the market contract; exchanges typically rely on the National Weather Service observation for Austin (the designated climate station), so check the market's settlement rules to confirm the exact station identifier.
The market will use the day definition stated in the contract, normally the calendar date as reported by the designated local station (local time). Verify the market rules for the precise start and end times used for counting the 24-hour period.
Settlement follows the exchange's procedure: it uses the final official observation from the specified data source and waits for any routine quality-control or NWS revisions allowed by the event rules; the contract will state the timeline for publishing the settled outcome.
Only if the market's settlement rules permit use of revised or corrected official data within the specified verification window; check the event's settlement clause to see whether preliminary adjustments are allowed and how long the verification period lasts.
Local factors (urban heat island, airport placement, nearby pavement, or vegetation) influence the station reading; settlement depends on the designated official site’s measurements, so differences between neighborhood thermometers and the official station can lead to different perceived outcomes.