| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will contain the highest temperature recorded in Austin on March 12, 2026. It matters to traders and stakeholders who use temperature outcomes to hedge or speculate on weather-dependent risks (energy demand, event planning, agriculture).
March is a transition month in central Texas, so day-to-day temperatures can swing widely depending on the synoptic pattern. Short‑term features like cold fronts or high‑pressure ridges and longer‑term factors such as seasonal climate anomalies influence whether a given March day is unusually warm or cool.
Market prices summarize participants’ collective expectations for which temperature range will be the day’s maximum; they update as new forecast information and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a deterministic forecast.
The listed close time is TBD; the winning outcome will be determined after the official highest temperature for March 12, 2026 is published by the designated data source and settlement follows the platform’s market rules. Check the market page for any announced close time and the final settlement notice.
Settlement uses the official observing station and data source specified in the market rules—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for Austin’s designated station. The market description on the platform names the exact source you should rely on.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a defined temperature range in degrees (as shown on the market). The outcome that contains the official highest observed temperature reported for March 12, 2026 is the winning outcome; check the outcome definitions for endpoint inclusivity.
Settlement follows the precise value published by the designated official source and the inclusivity rules stated in the market. If multiple readings share the same maximum value, the value itself is used to determine which range wins; any further tie resolution follows the platform’s settlement policy.
Watch NWS forecast discussions for Austin, short‑ and medium‑range model updates (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), local hourly temperature observations from Austin stations, timing of frontal passages or surface pressure changes, and cloud/precipitation trends that could limit daytime heating.