| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 52% | 49¢ | 52¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 17% | 16¢ | 19¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 36% | 32¢ | 36¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six temperature outcomes will be the highest temperature recorded in Austin on March 11, 2026, and matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates expectations about a specific daily weather extreme.
Austin sits in a transitional season in early March, when temperatures can swing between cool spells and unseasonably warm days depending on the passage of synoptic systems and local effects. Historical March highs have varied year to year, and both short-term weather patterns (fronts, ridges) and longer-term climate signals can influence outcomes for a single date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants given available forecasts and information; they are dynamic and will change as new model runs, observations, or local reports arrive. Treat prices as real-time signals rather than guarantees of the final observed temperature.
The market is structured into six discrete temperature outcome bins; the precise boundaries for those bins and their labels are listed on the KALSHI event page or contract description and determine which outcome wins after settlement.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; the winning outcome is determined by the official highest reported temperature for Austin on March 11, 2026 as defined in the contract, and settlement follows once that official observation is available and any dispute window has passed.
The contract specifies a designated official reporting source (typically an official NWS/NOAA station serving Austin such as the primary airport observation); check the KALSHI contract text for the exact named station or data feed used for settlement.
Short-range forecast model runs and updated ensemble guidance issued within about 1–3 days of the date often have the largest impact, because they refine synoptic details (timing and strength of fronts, cloud cover) that materially change the expected daily maximum; traders typically react to those updates.
Settlement follows the event rules in the contract: if the designated official observation is unavailable or clearly erroneous, the platform's dispute and resolution procedures apply and may use alternative official sources or an adjudication process as described in the market documentation.