| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will represent the highest temperature recorded in Austin on March 10, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive traders, utilities, event planners, and anyone tracking short-range temperature forecasts in Central Texas.
Austin in early March sits in a seasonal transition where warm spells and late cold fronts both occur, so day-to-day variability is common. This KALSHI market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes and has recorded $10,691 in volume; participants should consult the contract for the official observing station and settlement rules. Forecast uncertainty will shrink as model guidance, observations, and short-range analyses converge in the days leading up to March 10.
Market odds summarize the collective view of participants about which outcome bin will contain the observed maximum temperature. To use those odds, compare the market's implied likelihoods across outcomes while referencing the contract's settlement mechanics and payout schedule.
Settlement follows the market's specified official source and observation window; check the contract text for the precise reporting station (e.g., the designated NOAA/ASOS station or local official instrument) and whether 'day' means local calendar day or a defined UTC period.
The close time is listed as TBD on the market page; typically markets close before the observation window begins to prevent trading on in-day observations, so confirm the announced close time on the market interface.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin; the outcome whose bin contains the highest reported temperature from the designated observation source will be declared the winner, with any tie or exceptional cases handled per the market's settlement rules.
Watch short-range high-resolution models and their ensemble spread, agreement between major models (e.g., operational and ensemble means), satellite imagery for cloud trends, surface observations and frontal analyses, and near-term mesoscale guidance for timing of cloud cover or precipitation.
Early March in Austin can produce a wide range of outcomes; moderately warm or cool highs are common, while extremes require strong synoptic forcing (a pronounced ridge for unusual warmth or a strong cold front for unusual coolness). Consult local climatology and recent record lists from NOAA or Austin climate summaries to quantify how rare a particular temperature would be.