| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded at Austin, Texas, on April 2, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge or speculative instrument for weather-dependent economic activities and climate volatility.
April in Central Texas is a period of transition where daily temperatures can fluctuate significantly depending on incoming cold fronts or early-season heat domes. Historical data for Austin in early April shows a wide range of variance, as the region sits at the intersection of arid western air and moist Gulf currents. Meteorologists rely on long-range climate models and historical averages to estimate the likelihood of spring temperature extremes in the region.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how current meteorological trends and climate patterns will translate into specific temperature ranges for that day.
The official daily maximum temperature recorded at the primary NWS-sanctioned reporting station for Austin, Texas.
Early April is typically mild in Austin, but it remains susceptible to late-season cold fronts or unseasonably early heat spikes that shift the distribution of possible outcomes.
The market settles based on the finalized official report from the designated meteorological authority, typically adjusted for any post-observation errors.
Yes, the predefined outcome ranges are designed to capture both typical spring temperatures and potential anomalies driven by extreme meteorological events.
While long-term warming trends inform broad climatology, daily weather remains highly stochastic, making it difficult to predict precise temperatures far in advance.