| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 3% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 46% | 46¢ | 49¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 37% | 29¢ | 36¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 12% | 8¢ | 13¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest air temperature observed in Atlanta on March 9, 2026; it matters for traders, planners, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk or weather-sensitive operations.
Atlanta sits in a humid subtropical climate where early March is a transition month and day-to-day temperatures can swing widely. Seasonal patterns (and larger-scale drivers like El Niño/La Niña, jet-stream position, and transient surface fronts) set the stage, while mesoscale features and cloud/precipitation on the day determine the realized high.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders given available meteorological information; they update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Treat market odds as a real‑time summary of consensus expectations, not as an official forecast from a weather agency.
The market's resolution source is specified on the event page; many weather markets use the National Weather Service's official climate station for Atlanta (commonly the Hartsfield‑Jackson airport site) or a designated NWS reporting station. Check the event description for the exact station and data provider that will be used for settlement.
'Highest temperature' means the maximum observed air temperature for the local calendar day (usually measured at standard 2‑meter height) at the designated reporting station. The event's resolution text will state whether instantaneous, hourly, or finalized daily values from the official source are used.
The six outcomes represent mutually exclusive temperature bins that cover the range of plausible highs for the day; the event page lists the exact numeric boundaries for each outcome. Trades settle into the single bin that contains the official highest temperature reported by the chosen data source.
This market's close time is listed as TBD on the page; markets often close either shortly before the observation day begins or at a specified time beforehand. Resolution typically occurs after the official daily summary for March 9, 2026 is published by the designated data provider—check the event's rules for the exact settlement timing and any fallback procedures.
A last‑minute shift to southerly winds bringing warm air advection, a loss of expected cloud cover leading to stronger daytime heating, delayed frontal passage that keeps warmer air in place, or a reduction in predicted precipitation that otherwise would limit warming can all push the highest temperature into a warmer outcome bin.