| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 8, 2026. Outcomes give a short-term, market-based view of expected weather on that specific date, which can matter to travel, energy demand, and outdoor events.
Atlanta in early March sits in a transitional season where mild spring warmth can alternate with late-winter cold; synoptic-scale patterns (frontal passages, ridging/troughing) drive most of the day-to-day swings. The market’s outcome definitions and the official observing station/time used to settle the event are specified on the event page and should be checked because local station choice and timing can affect the recorded daily maximum.
Market odds here summarize the collective expectations of traders and update as new forecasts and observations emerge; they are an indicator of consensus confidence, not a guarantee of the realized temperature.
The event page shows the official close time; if it is listed as TBD, monitor the event page for updates. Markets typically close shortly before the observation period begins or at a platform-specified cutoff—check the page for this market’s specific rule.
The event’s settlement rules on the market page specify the official observing station and the definition of the highest temperature (for example, the NWS daily maximum at a named station and the local calendar day or UTC window). Confirm those settlement details before trading, since station choice and the exact time window can change which outcome is realized.
Because U.S. daylight saving time begins on the second Sunday in March (which falls on Mar 8, 2026), check the market’s settlement rules for how the reporting window is defined (local standard time, local daylight time, or UTC). Platforms usually state explicitly how they handle DST transitions for daily observations.
Short-range model runs and real-time surface observations typically have the largest influence within 0–72 hours of the target date; as new guidance arrives, traders update positions, so market prices can move quickly in the days and hours before Mar 8.
Potential issues include discrepancies in the official record (instrument failure, station relocation, missing data) or ambiguity in the settlement definition. If such problems arise, follow the dispute resolution procedure in the event rules and contact the platform for clarification; the event page will describe how exceptions are handled.