| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market settles on the highest officially reported air temperature in the Atlanta metropolitan area on March 7, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive traders and participants who want to hedge or speculate on short-term temperature outcomes for transportation, energy, agriculture, and event planning.
Early March is a transitional period in the southeastern U.S., when the position of the jet stream and the timing of frontal passages drive large day-to-day swings. Atlanta's temperatures on a given day can be influenced by synoptic-scale patterns (cold intrusions or ridging), mesoscale features, and urban effects, so outcomes can change rapidly as model forecasts and observations evolve.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of participants given available forecasts and information; they update as new weather model runs, observations, and news arrive. Prices are not guarantees — they reflect current consensus and can move quickly when the forecast changes.
The market uses the highest official air temperature recorded for the designated Atlanta official observation site during the local calendar date March 7, 2026 (00:00–23:59 local time). The event page or KALSHI resolution rules identify which official station and data source will be used.
The close time is set by KALSHI (currently listed as TBD). The winning outcome is determined after the official daily maximum is available from the designated source and any published verification window or dispute process has been completed; the exchange will announce the resolution timetable on the event page.
Resolution will rely on the official observing network specified by KALSHI (typically National Weather Service/NOAA station data or an explicitly designated official climate site). The event page and resolution rules will list the authoritative data source.
Key near-term drivers include the exact timing and strength of any cold front or warm ridge, cloud cover and precipitation timing (daytime clouds/precipitation reduce peaks), and shifts in low-level wind direction that alter air mass characteristics.
If the designated station's data are missing or flagged, KALSHI will follow its published resolution procedures: that may mean using an alternate official source, relying on corrected or provisional observations, or applying specific tie-breaker rules. Traders should consult the exchange's resolution policy on the event page for exact handling.