| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° or above | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 24% | 25¢ | 33¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 18% | 16¢ | 21¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 58% | 53¢ | 61¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest officially recorded in Atlanta on March 6, 2026; it matters for participants hedging weather-dependent decisions (energy load, event planning, agriculture) and for traders expressing expectations about short-term weather.
Early March is a transitional month for Atlanta: conditions can swing from cool, frontal-driven days to unseasonably warm periods driven by Gulf-sourced air. Single-day outcomes like this are dominated by synoptic-scale systems and short-term model guidance rather than seasonal averages, so near-term forecasts and observations matter more than long-term climate trends for resolution.
Market prices reflect the collective view of which outcome bucket is expected to occur and will change as forecasts, model runs, and observations update; consult the market page for the exact buckets and the official resolution rules before trading.
The market resolves based on the official observing station specified in the market rules (typically the National Weather Service station that represents Atlanta); check the market's resolution rule for the precise source and time standard used for the daily maximum.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the page — the eventual closing time and the schedule for resolution will be posted on the market page; resolution normally follows publication of the official daily summary from the designated observing authority.
Each outcome is a discrete temperature range covering the plausible span for that date; the exact numeric boundaries for the six buckets are published on the market page, so review them before trading to understand which range corresponds to each contract.
Short-term model updates, satellite imagery, surface observations, and updated upper-air data can shift expectations quickly because a single passing front or change in cloud cover on the day can move the highest temperature outcome from one range to another.
Large-scale patterns can modulate seasonal tendencies (making certain patterns more or less likely), but a single-day outcome is primarily driven by synoptic weather on and immediately before March 6; ENSO and other teleconnections are one of several background factors rather than a decisive determinant for that specific date.