| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 49% | 46¢ | 49¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 18% | 16¢ | 17¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 30% | 29¢ | 30¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market lets traders buy and sell shares tied to the highest air temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 5, 2026. It matters because extreme or atypical temperatures on that date affect energy demand, event planning, and short-term weather risk assessments.
The event falls in the late-winter / early-spring transition when Atlanta often sees high variability between cool and warm days. Short-term outcomes are driven by synoptic weather features (fronts, jet stream position) while seasonal factors (soil moisture, recent temperature trends) modulate how rapidly temperatures respond. The market aggregates participants’ expectations about those drivers into tradable outcomes.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants about which temperature range will be observed, and they update in real time as new information arrives. Use them as a summary of market consensus, not as a deterministic forecast; always check the market’s stated resolution rules for exact interpretation.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will occur according to the resolution rules published on that page after the official observation for March 5, 2026 is available. Check the KALSHI market page for any updates to the timeline.
The event’s resolution clause on the market page specifies the authoritative data source and station used to determine the highest temperature. Many weather markets use an official NOAA/NWS station for Atlanta; confirm the exact station and dataset named on this KALSHI event page before trading.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or exact-value condition shown on the market page. The winning outcome is the bin that contains the official maximum temperature recorded for the specified station and local calendar date; read the event’s payout and tie-breaking rules for edge cases.
Official daily summaries from the designated data provider are usually posted within a day or two, but the precise settlement timing is governed by the market’s resolution rules. Refer to the event page for the exact post-observation window used for settlement.
Key local drivers include the timing of any frontal passage (which can bring rapid warming or cooling), morning cloud cover versus clearing by midday, precipitation or thunderstorms, wind direction bringing Gulf or continental air, and local urban heat island effects tied to station location.