| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $40K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 4, 2026. It matters to traders and to anyone interested in short-term climate variability or weather-sensitive risk exposure in the Atlanta area.
The event is hosted on KALSHI and currently shows $97,077 in total volume with six discrete outcomes; the market close time is listed as TBD. Early March in Atlanta is a transitional period where outcomes can swing between late‑winter cool spells and unseasonably warm days, so short‑term synoptic changes often drive this event.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which temperature bin will contain the day’s maximum and move as forecasts and observations change. Use prices as a real‑time read of market sentiment, not a definitive weather forecast.
Resolution follows the market’s published settlement rules: the outcome will be determined by the official highest temperature measurement for Atlanta on March 4, 2026 as specified by those rules, and the market will close and settle according to the timeline KALSHI posts once the close time is set.
The market settles to the official maximum temperature observation specified in the event terms (typically the primary official climate station used in the market’s rules). Traders should check the event’s detail page for the precise observing station and measurement standard used for settlement.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range (a temperature bin). After March 4, the observed daily maximum is compared to those bins and the single bin containing the observed value is declared the winning outcome.
Monitor short‑range model runs (e.g., 0–72 hour) and high‑quality observations because they most strongly influence the expected max for a single day; shifts in frontal timing, cloud cover, or precipitation forecasts often produce the largest market moves in the 48 hours before the target date.
The event will settle according to the contingency and data rules laid out on the market page—typically using the official record from the designated observing authority or, if unavailable, the alternative data source specified in the market’s terms. Traders should read the settlement provisions now to understand those fallbacks.