| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 3, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone hedging temperature risk for that date.
Early March in Atlanta is a transitional period where temperatures can swing depending on the timing of cold fronts, sunshine, and warm-air advection from the south. Outcomes for a single calendar day can be driven by synoptic-scale patterns established days ahead as well as last‑minute shifts in cloud cover and frontal timing. Check the contract rules to confirm which official station and measurement method will be used for settlement.
Market prices summarize participants' collective expectations about which temperature bracket will be observed; price moves reflect updated model forecasts, new observations, and trader flows rather than a single forecaster's view.
Settlement is determined by the data source specified in the contract rules — typically an official National Weather Service or ASOS/COOP station for the Atlanta metropolitan area; consult the market's rule page to confirm the exact station and measurement definition used.
The trading close is listed as TBD on the market page; settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is published by the designated station, so check the contract timeline and settlement window on the event page for the final schedule.
Recent model runs (especially high‑resolution and ensemble guidance), surface observation trends, timing of any approaching fronts, and satellite/radar indications of cloud cover or precipitation are the most market‑moving inputs as the event approaches.
Only the reporting station and measurement method specified in the contract rules will be used for settlement; other stations may inform traders but do not affect the official outcome unless explicitly named by the contract.
Updated model guidance can shift expectations for frontal timing and cloud cover, changing the forecasted peak heating window; late‑day clouds, rain, or an earlier arrival of cooler air can suppress the maximum temperature even after prior warm forecasts.